There are an estimated 1.3 billion tobacco users worldwide1. This number has only decreased by 0.02 billion in the past 10 years and is predicted to fall by a mere 0.1 billion by 2030, leaving 1.2 billion across the world still smoking2. Yet, some countries have significantly reduced their tobacco use and are soon to reach the coveted title of ‘smoke-free’ – they have brought smoking rates down to less than 5%. How have they achieved this? Real-world evidence suggests this is because of the positive approach to smoke-free products.
Sweden boasts one of the lowest smoking rates in Europe and is the first country to be considered ‘smoke-free’. With just 4.5% of its adult population reporting that they smoke cigarettes daily3, Sweden is 17 years ahead of the EU’s target. This is significantly lower than the UK’s 10.6% smoking prevalence4. This is all thanks to the country’s adoption of oral nicotine5. Sweden’s tobacco and nicotine regulations are similar to those in the rest of the European Union, with one important exception: Sweden is the only EU country where oral nicotine has been positioned by the government as a viable alternative to smoking and has been embraced for decades.
Look across to the other side of the world, and you will find similar success. Japan has brought its smoking rates down by almost 14% in 7 years6. Between 2011 and 2015, cigarette sales were slowly declining, but the introduction of heated tobacco products in 2016 attributed to the accelerated decline since7. The sales and smoking prevalence data from Japan continue to show how heated tobacco products have had an impact on accelerating the decline of smoking prevalence by transitioning adult smokers away from combustible tobacco.
Over in New Zealand, there is yet more evidence to substantiate how smoke-free products can have a positive impact on smoking rates. In November 2024, New Zealand published the ‘Getting to Smokefree 2025’, a report on the final actions needed to achieve the Smokefree 2025 goal8. A key factor of this push includes the provision of vaping starter kits as a successful method of going, and staying, ‘smoke-free’9. This position has been further supported by the government’s ‘Vaping Facts’ campaign, launched in 2019, that promoted the use of vaping as a method to quit smoking10. Smoking rates have reduced by 9.5% over the past 11 years to reach 6.9% in 2023/202411, and New Zealand is on track to join Sweden as a ‘smoke-free country.’
The real-world evidence is clear: smoke-free products are a viable solution to reducing smoking rates and helping countries go smoke-free. While we can all agree that the best thing smokers can do is quit smoking altogether, the reality is that many do not. And if the UK fails to recognise the role SFPs play in supporting adults who smoke to switch away from cigarettes, we will struggle to follow the success of countries that are realising a smoke-free future.
References
- WHO Fact Sheet, Tobacco, 25 June 2025, Tobacco
- WHO Global Report on Trends in Prevalence of Tobacco Use 2000-2030, 3.1.6 Trends in number of tobacco users, Table 6 Trends in the global number of tobacco users (millions aged 15 years and older), P.16,
- New milestone as Sweden enshrines policy that can turn the world smoke-free - Smoke Free Sweden
- Adult smoking habits in the UK - Office for National Statistics
- Home page - Smoke Free Sweden
- 18.2% in 2016 to 15.7% in 2023, National Health and Nutrition Survey|Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
- Cummings KM, Nahhas GJ, Sweanor DT. What Is Accounting for the Rapid Decline in Cigarette Sales in Japan? Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 May 20;17(10):3570. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17103570. PMID: 32443663; PMCID: PMC7277739.
- Getting-to-Smokefree-2025-The-final-push-to-achieving-the-Smokefree-2025-goal.pdf, Minister’s Foreword
- Ibid, p.20
- Our position on vaping | Vaping Facts
- Trends in smoking and vaping: New Zealand Health Survey | Ministry of Health NZ