Sentencing review calls for investment in Probation Service to boost 'capacity and resilience'

David Gauke sets out recommendations to tackle prison capacity crisis
David Gauke Photo: Parliament UK

By Jim Dunton

22 May 2025

David Gauke's independent sentencing review has urged the government to invest in the Probation Service to ensure it has the right level of resources and resilience.

The former justice secretary today published the proposals for sentencing reforms that could play a major role in ending the current prisons-capacity crisis – but also see some categories of offender serve less time behind bars.

The final report of the review admits that locking up fewer criminals will “place a greater burden on a probation system that is already under great strain”.  

As well as the call for increased investment in the Probation Service to support “capacity and resilience”, it says more funding is needed for the third sector to support the Probation Service to manage offenders in the community.

Gauke’s full package of measures includes expanding on existing early-release initiatives for prisoners, extending the use of suspended sentences, and continuing to pilot the use of “chemical suppression” – also known as chemical castration – for sex offenders.

In total, the former justice secretary said he believed the review’s recommendations would free up around 9,800 prison places – more than 10% of current capacity in England and Wales.

When Gauke was appointed to lead the review in October last year, around 85,000 people were in prison in England and Wales. The figure is more than twice the number in 1993. The review said that last month prison capacity was estimated to have been 87,000.

In January this year, members of parliament’s Public Accounts Committee were told that the Ministry of Justice projects demand for prison places to exceed availability by around 6,000 by 2027 without further reform.

Gauke said the review’s recommendations were “necessary but not sufficient” to put the system on a sustainable footing and reduce crime and the number of offenders passing through the nation’s jails.

“We not only have to set out measures  to reduce the prison population but also to address other related challenges to the criminal justice system that will reduce future pressures on the prison population,” he said.

While the review says the “overwhelming consensus” from evidence gathering is that “rehabilitative support in the community is often the most effective way to reduce reoffending” it is frank about problems faced by the Probation Service.

The review notes that there was a shortfall of 1,854 full-time-equivalent probation officers as of December last year, compared with target staffing levels. Probation officers would have a key role in ensuring any expansion of non-custodial sentencing is a success.

It says high, complex caseloads combined with budget constraints have led to their being "fewer resources for supervision and support within the Probation Service" and that these constraints have limited the capacity of probation officers to deliver adequate, individualised attention to offenders.

The review also says that resources are likely to remain stretched,  even with extra funding, "meaning that the Probation Service will have to prioritise how it supervises and manages offenders to ensure that it is able to deliver necessary programmes and intervention".

While the review calls for increased funding for the Probation Service, it does not suggest an appropriate quantum.

“The review welcomes recent measures announced to increase staffing capacity,” it says.  “However, in order for community sentences to be as effective and meaningful as possible – and to ensure that the Probation Service can effectively reduce both reoffending and risk of harm – the government must invest in the Probation Service in the long term to ensure sufficient resourcing, especially in the context of increased numbers of offenders being managed in the community following the implementation of the  review’s recommendations.”

Responding to the review, civil service union Prospect, which represents prison professionals working in psychology, training, chaplaincy and other support roles, said investment in staff capability is crucial.

Senior deputy general secretary Sue Ferns said: "The best way to protect the public is to reduce reoffending. Working effectively to reform offenders while they are in custody is more important than how long they spend in prison and that means investing properly in areas like psychology, training and chaplaincy.

“Decisions to transfer offenders from prisons to community supervision must be based on sound professional judgment so public protection is maximised.

“For these sentencing reforms to work we need a greater emphasis on reform and rehabilitation, continued investment in prison spaces and staff, and to speed up the glacial pace of the judicial process so individuals spend less time on remand.”

Steve Gillan, general secretary of the Prison Officers Association, said the extent to which ministers resourced the Gauke recommendations would be key to their success.

“It is clear for all to see that the whole criminal justice system is in crisis,” he said. “You cannot build your way out of a crisis. This report needs to be properly funded if the justice system wants to divert people away from prisons. The public need to have confidence that not jailing people for criminal activity but dealing with them in the community is justified. Victims of crime must always come first. Only time will tell if these reforms will work to ease overcrowding in our prisons.”

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