Research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies has cast doubt on the connection between longer NHS waiting lists and significant growth in the number of people claiming working-age health benefits.
The study could mean policy pushes to boost economic growth by reducing hospital waiting lists – mooted by both the Department of Health and Social Care and the Department for Work and Pensions – have less chance of success than ministers hope.
According to the IFS, the number of working-age adults receiving health-related benefits in England increased by around 40% between November 2019 and May 2024. Over the same period, the size of the NHS waiting list for pre-planned hospital care grew by 67% from 4.6 million to 7.6 million. During that period, the average amount of time people on the list waited for treatment increased by 86% – from 10 weeks to 19 weeks.
Anti-poverty charity the Joseph Rowntree Foundation funded the IFS to examine whether there is a link between rising numbers of working-age adults receiving health-related benefits and extended wait times for NHS treatment.
The results of the study, published today, found no evidence that rising waiting lists for non-emergency hospital treatment have been a major driver of increases in that specific category of benefits since the start of the pandemic.
The IFS said local areas that experienced larger increases in NHS waits for elective hospital treatment between 2019 and 2024 did not, on average, experience meaningfully larger increases in disability or incapacity benefit claims.
It said there were “some signs” of a possible relationship between NHS waits and disability-benefit claims for mental-health and musculoskeletal conditions. But the think tank said the relationships were “weak” and might explain only 7% at most of the national increase in benefit claims for those specific conditions.
Report author Max Warner, who is senior research economist at the IFS, said the analysis “very strongly suggests” rising NHS waiting lists for elective hospital treatment had not been a major factor behind increases in working-age ill-health benefits claims.
“The main explanation for rising benefit claims almost certainly lies elsewhere,” he said. “Reducing hospital waiting times is a sensible policy objective, not least as it would benefit those who use the NHS – but we shouldn’t necessarily expect it to also deliver a significant reduction in health-related benefit claims. That’s a separate policy nut to crack.”
Iain Porter, senior policy adviser at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, noted that the research did not allow for conclusions to be drawn on the impact of broader NHS services such as primary care.
But he said ministers needed to fully understand the cause of widespread and persistent physical and mental health problems to take the “comprehensive action” required.
“It’s imperative that we understand and tackle the underlying social and economic causes of poor health,” he said.
The IFS said that its findings were “relevant” for understanding recent trends and policy.
It pointed to health secretary Wes Streeting’s plans to expand the focus of DHSC to include improving the nation’s economic growth.
The IFS cited Streeting’s July 2024 speech at the Tony Blair Institute, when he said:“By cutting waiting lists, we can get Britain back to health and back to work.”
It also referenced comments to last year’s Labour Party Conference, when Streeting announced that “crack teams” would be sent to reduce waiting lists in areas with high levels of economic inactivity. DHSC announced the initiative would be accelerated in March this year.
The IFS also pointed to DWP’s controversial Pathways to Work green paper, which underpins the government’s ambition to save £5bn a year in benefits payments by the end of the parliament.
The document said long NHS waiting lists had “led to people going untreated for longer, reducing earlier interventions that could have helped them manage their health condition better, prevent longer-term sickness and support more timely reintegration back into work”.