Senior civil servants should get an average pay rise of no more than 2.5% next year, the government has said.
In evidence to the Senior Salaries Review Body, which makes recommendations on pay for senior officials, the Cabinet Office said its position on pay was based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecast that average earnings growth will fall to 2.2% in 2026-27.
The Cabinet Office added that it has “also further brought forward the pay round this year, which makes it particularly important that pay review bodies consider forecasts for wage growth”.
“The government has considered these factors whilst carefully evaluating the overall affordability position and recommends that the total increase in paybill for the SCS should be no higher than 2.5%,” it said.
The Cabinet Office said departments will once again have to fund any increase above this from their own budgets as “HM Treasury has been clear that there will be no additional funding to departments for 2026-27 pay awards”.
It added that the Cabinet Office “will need to carefully consider the justification for any recommendation higher than 2.5%, and whether departments can make countervailing measures to meet the cost”.
The recommendation is similar to last year, when the government recommended a rise no higher than 2.8%; it ended up accepting a recommendation from the SSRB for a 3.25% rise.
FDA assistant general secretary Lauren Crowley said the choice of 2.5% “comes as no surprise as inflation hasn’t dropped since last year’s pay round”.
She added: “Of course, last year’s affordability evidence did not predicate the final pay award senior civil servants received, as the Senior Salaries Review Body took into account broader evidence when making a final recommendation.
“This is something we saw across the public sector and shows the importance of pay review bodies when they are allowed to operate truly independently, with a government prepared to listen to their findings.”
Crowley said the FDA would publish its own evidence shortly, which will “stress that SCS salaries must keep pace with comparable roles elsewhere”.
“We can never return to a situation where civil service pay is held back behind of the rest of the public sector, as was the case for too many years under the previous government,” she added.
Steve Thomas, deputy general secretary of Prospect, said the proposal is "a worrying starting place for negotiation".
“Although inflation is forecast to fall, it has already remained higher for longer than many forecasters expected," Thomas said.
“By fixing affordability at just 2.5% the government is raising the spectre of yet another real terms pay cut if inflation stays high. This would be completely unacceptable to civil servants who have seen their spending power steadily eroded, all the while continuing to deliver high quality essential services to the public.
“This can’t be an argument based solely on affordability, we need a pay system in place which will deliver a functional and competitive civil service in the longer term. That means a structure which enables recruitment and retention of specialist in-demand skills, a pay progression system which recognises expertise, and benchmarking to direct private and public sector comparators.”
This year’s Cabinet Office evidence comes two months earlier than last year’s, continuing a recent improvement in the timeliness of the pay remit process. This year’s (2025-26) pay rise was announced in May, two months earlier than in 2024-25. With the 2026-27 pay remit process now two months ahead of 2025-26, next year’s pay rise could be announced by the beginning of the 2026-27 financial year.
The evidence also sets out the government’s priorities for the 2026-27 award, including a focus on the fundamental review of SCS pay and reward frameworks launched by the government earlier this year.
The Cabinet Office said the SCS pay award for 2026-27 should be prioritised as follows:
- Priority 1: implementation of measures from the fundamental review of SCS pay;
- Priority 2: to allocate a consolidated basic pay increase to all SCS;
- Priority 3: for departments to address acute issues stemming from the operational application of the pay ranges and other workforce factors.
The Cabinet Office said the government’s “ambition” is for the 2026-27 pay award “to act as a pathway to sustained reform of the SCS reward structure, with clear and achievable outcomes” and that the “main priority this year is to ensure suitable measures from the fundamental review are implemented”.
It expects the fundamental review, which was recommended by the SSRB, to have concluded by 2026-27.