The costs associated with red-rated projects in the Government’s Major Projects Portfolio have risen by £101bn after three of the most costly schemes in the portfolio changed from amber to red.
The GMPP now has 213 projects delivered by 20 departments and their arm’s-length bodies, as of the latest March 2025 snapshot. These projects and programmes have total whole life costs of £996bn and monetised benefits of £742bn.
The figures were released this week with the National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority’s 2024-25 annual report, the body's first since it was set up this spring. The report gives a snapshot of the GMPP in March 2025, tracking progress of projects and providing analysis on how they are performing.
Most of the schemes are still rated amber (135), while 31 are red and 30 are green, under the delivery confidence assessment method used to track the overall health of the GMPP portfolio over time.
This means 14.5% of the portfolio is now red rated, as of March, the highest proportion since the GMPP was created in 2013.
In 2023-24, the GMPP had 227 projects with whole life costs of £834bn and monetised benefits of £719bn. 163 of these were amber-rated, while 27 were red-rated (12%) and 25 were rated green.
This rise in red rated projects has come alongside a more significant increase to their total costs – the whole life costs of red-rated projects is now £198bn, up from £97bn in 2023-24. This means red-rated projects now account for 20% of the GMPP’s whole life costs, up from 12% the year before – which was the previous high. Amber projects still make up the vast majority of total whole life costs.
The report says: “This is mostly driven by a few large GMPP projects that were previously amber and that moved to red this year.”
The three red-rated projects with the highest whole life costs were amber last year and are in the top five for overall cost in the portfolio.
Those projects are:
- The Department for Transport’s Northern Powerhouse Rail – £30.6bn whole life cost
- The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs’ Farming and Countryside Programme – £24.875bn
- The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero’s Geological Disposal Facility – whole life cost of between £20.3bn and £53.3bn, reflecting “the uncertainty of the programme associated with potential host site, geology and technical requirements”.
What do the traffic-light ratings mean?
Amber means the project’s delivery appears feasible but significant issues exist, requiring management attention. These projects appear resolvable at this stage and, if addressed promptly, should not present a cost/schedule overrun.
Red means successful delivery of the project appears to be unachievable. There are major issues with project definition, schedule, budget, quality and/or benefits delivery, which at this stage do not appear to be manageable or resolvable. The project may need re-scoping and/or its overall viability reassessed.
Green means successful delivery of the project on time, budget and quality appears highly likely and there are no major outstanding issues that at this stage appear to threaten delivery significantly.
Some 29 of the projects that were in the 2023-24 GMPP have left: 14 reported successful delivery against their objectives; two left to be replaced by another GMPP project; seven left because they no longer met GMPP reporting criteria; and six were brought to early closure.
NISTA was created this year through the merger of the National Infrastructure Commission and the Infrastructure and Projects Authority.
The IPA previously held responsibility for the GMPP. NISTA has taken over that role, which includes managing the portfolio, assessing confidence in delivery through a red/amber/green rating system, and providing support to departments in delivering the programmes and.
Portfolio projects are split into four categories:
- Infrastructure and Construction – the largest GMPP category in terms of whole life cost (433bn), there are 68 projects in this year's portfolio and total monetised benefits of £384bn
- Transformation and Service Delivery – the largest category by project number, with 76 projects this year, these projects are often shorter compared to the other categories and the report says many schemes in this category left the GMPP last year after successful delivery.
- Military Capability – the second largest category in terms of total whole life costs (£327bn), these projects normally take longer to complete than other categories, with an average forecast duration of 20 years. There are 45 projects in the category this year and all are delivered by the MoD. These projects report the lowest amount of monetised benefits (£22bn).
- Information and Communications Technology – the smallest category by number and value with 24 projects at a total whole life cost of £36bn, it is still an important part of the portfolio with many projects in other categories having significant digital components.
The NISTA 2024-25 report gives a briefer lowdown on the GMPP than in previous years. In a foreword to the report, chief secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said this is because "the majority of the current GMPP was inherited from the previous administration, with this snapshot covering March 2024 to March 2025".
"Since then, we have made significant progress through allocating essential funding for infrastructure maintenance and structures, launching new projects and programmes with the potential to transform lives, and learning important lessons from past shortcomings, including those identified in the James Stewart review of HS2," Jones said.
“Our ambition has a bright future and there is no room to lose momentum. I am committed to working alongside NISTA, government departments, and industry to drive meaningful change and ensure that infrastructure is firmly at the heart of Britain’s progress.”